NAJBRŽE RASTUĆI PRIVATNI SEKTOR Marihuana je nova zlatna koka za uzlet gospodarstva

Država Colorado je u 2014. zaraditla na marihuani 70 milijuna dolara, od kojih 40 milijuna ide školama

Prvi dani legalne prodaje marihuane u američkoj saveznoj državi Colorado prošli su više nego dobro za sve trgovce koji su se na vrijeme uspjeli registrirati – prvoga je dana prodaja u 24 trgovine bila veća od milijun dolara, a u prvih sedam dana premašila je pet milijuna dolara. Da je potražnja bolja od očekivanja, pokazuje i podatak da je nekoliko trgovina moralo zatvoriti vrata jer jednostavno nisu nabavili dovoljno robe. Posebno je, čini se, bila podcijenjena potražnja za prehrambenim proizvodima s marihuanom, prema informacijama televizije Denver Channel, jer je najveći proizvođač tih proizvoda, Dixie Elixirs and Edibles, u prva tri dana prodao zalihe koje su planirali za mjesec dana. 

Rast tvrtki na burzama

Pojačana je potražnja, naravno, podigla i cijene: gram u Coloradu stoji oko 15 dolara, što je dvostruko više od cijene medicinske marihuane u drugim saveznim državama.Tržište legalne marihuane vjerojatno će biti jedno od najbrže rastućih poslovnih sektora sljedećih godina. Colorado je prvi legalizirao uzgoj i trgovinu marihuane za punoljetne osobe, slijedi savezna država Washington gdje će sustav profunkcionirati tijekom proljeća, a u još 18 saveznih država legalna je upotreba marihuane za medicinske potrebe. No, u nekoliko od tih država priprema se teren za potpunu legalizaciju, a prvi bi mogli biti Aljaska i Oregon.

 

Nije stoga čudno što se očekuje da će se prihodi u ovom sektoru usedmerostručiti u sljedećih pet godina. Naime, tvrtka za istraživanje tržišta ArcView procjenjuje kako je prošle godine promet od uzgoja i maloprodaje legalne marihuane iznosio 1,44 milijarde dolara. Ove će godine, kako procjenjuju u nedavnoj studiji, dosegnuti 2,34 milijarde dolara, pri čemu će legalizacija u Coloradu i Washingtonu ove godine donijeti 208, odnosno 360 milijuna dolara prihoda. No, uz nastavak legalizacije do 2018. godine prihod od uzgoja i trgovine marihuanom dosegnut će 10,2 milijarde dolara, navodi ArcView. 

Mlado tržište

Naravno, takav rast prometa znači da tvrtke za uzgoj i trgovinu marihuanom postaju odlična investicija. Tvrtke čijim se dionicama već trguje na američkim burzama i uređenim tržištima bilježe golem rast. Primjerice, dionica tvrtke Hemp (“konoplja” na engleskom), sa sjedištem u Las Vegasu i u većinskom vlasništvu Brucea Perlowina koji je zbog krijumčarenja trave čak i odsjedio zatvorsku kaznu, samo se tijekom prošlog tjedna utrostručila. Na osam centi, doduše.Tržišna vrijednost Medboxa, tvrtke koja proizvodi ultra sigurne automate za prodaju marihuane na temelju otiska prsta, dosegnula je prošle srijede milijardu dolara nakon što im je u jednom danu dionica skočila 85 posto.No, otad im se tržišna kapitalizacija opet prepolovila. Riječ je, naime, o još nestabilnom, mladom i malom segmentu tržišta kapitala, a zbog promjenjivosti cijena i mogućih lažnih obećanja menadžera čak je sredinom prošle godine američka Komisija za vrijednosne papire upozorila ulagače na oprez. 

Ključni razlozi

Međutim, nesumnjivo je riječ o unosnom biznisu koji obećava godine rasta tržišta te stoga ne čudi što su nadležna tijela u Coloradu zatrpana stotinama zahtjeva za registraciju tvrtki – od kojih će svaka, sa svim naknadama koje državi treba platiti, stajati, ovisno o tipu uzgajališta ili trgovine, i do 20.000 dolara.Osim toga, porezna uprava Colorada procjenjuje da će im ove godine porezi i trošarine za marihuanu donijeti oko 70 milijuna dolara dodatnog proračunskog prihoda, od čega bi – kako definira amandman Ustava o legalizaciji marihuane koji su građani Colorada prihvatili na referendumu – prvih 40 milijuna dolara trebalo otići na škole. Upravo činjenica da će ovaj porok biti oporezovan jednako kao i alkohol i duhan, kako bi država imala više novca za javne usluge, vjerojatno je jedan od ključnih razloga zbog kojih je došlo do očite promjene svijesti američkih građana.Posljednjih godina istraživanja javnog mnijenja pokazuju da je broj građana koji podržavaju legalizaciju premašio broj onih koji su protiv. Osobna želja za slobodnim “duvanjem” sigurno je ključni motiv prosječnog glasača, što pokazuje i primjer Colorada. 

Rast podrške

Marihuanu je na referendumu, koji se održao u isto vrijeme kad i predsjednički izbori u studenome 2012., podržalo 55,32 posto glasača, dok je protiv bilo njih 44,68 posto, a navodno niti jedan nije bio nevažeći. Stopa izlaska glasača dosegnula je 68,55 posto.Prema procjenama iz studije sveučilišta u Coloradu, u toj saveznoj državi marihuanu konzumira 41,3 posto osoba u dobi između 18 i 25 godina te 11,5 posto osoba od 26 ili više godina. Primijene li se ti podaci na rezultate popisa stanovništva iz 2010., proizlazi da u Coloradu marihuanu konzumira između 550 i 600 tisuća osoba starijih od 18, dakle onih koji od ove godine mogu to legalno činiti. No, za legalizaciju je glasalo dva i pol puta više osoba: oko 1,4 milijuna glasača. Očito je dobar dio njih vjerojatno razmišljao fiskalno odgovorno: lijepo regulirati i nadzirati prodaju pa dopuniti državnu blagajnu.Neki smatraju da je glasanje o legalizaciji marihuane u Coloradu bio pokušaj da se na predsjedničke izbore 2012. dovuče što više glasača koji bi glasali za Baracka Obamu, s obzirom na to da su demokrati podržali legalizaciju marihuane. Odaziv na izbore u Coloradu doista je bio za desetak postotnih bodova viši nego u cijelom SAD-u, ali na kraju je marihuana dobila više glasova od Obame – što pokazuje da ni republikanci ne bi smjeli ignorirati ovo pitanje. 

Državni porez

U Coloradu se marihuana oporezuje na dvije razine: na veleprodajnoj razini, između proizvođača i trgovaca, naplaćuje se trošarina od 15 posto prosječne cijene, a trgovci će krajnjim kupcima, nakon što u završnu cijenu uračunaju svoje troškove poslovanja i dobit, naplatiti još deset posto posebnog poreza za marihuanu i uobičajeni državni porez na prodaju (u SAD-u ne postoji PDV) koji se u Coloradu kreće od 2,9 do najviše deset posto kad se uračunaju razni lokalni prirezi. 

Trgovačka marža

Konačni udjel poreza u maloprodajnoj cijeni marihuane bit će, dakle, varijabilan – ovisno o tome koliku maržu naplaćuju trgovci i o tome što će knjigovođe proizvođača i porezna uprava na koncu utanačiti kao propisima zasad nejasno definiranu referentnu prosječnu veleprodajnu cijenu. No, vjerojatno je da će ukupno porezno opterećenje marihuane na kraju biti slično onome za cigarete.Analiza sveučilišta u Coloradu pokazuje da bi porezni prihod u Coloradu u prvoj godini trebao biti oko deset milijuna dolara viši od onoga što predviđa država, no Washington od svoje marihuane planira zaraditi puno više.Oni, naime, planiraju puno više poreze na marihuanu pa očekuju kako će na oporezivanju marihuane proračunske prihode povećati za 500 milijuna dolara godišnje, po čemu će im trošarine na marihuanu biti važnije od onih na alkohol.

Izvor: jutarnji.hr
2017-10-23T10:52:54+00:00

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